If Harris Runs, Will He Win?

May 24, 2007 by Cato  
Filed under Maryland, Maryland Politics, Republican Campaigns

According to MonoBlogue it appears that Maryland Sen. Andy Harris is running for the 1st District Congressional seat currently held by Rep. Wayne Gilchrest. Will Harris be able to defeat a 9 term incumbent who has survived multiple primary challenges and thoroughly trounced his general election opponents?

The clear answer is yes! The only things that could prevent Harris from taking this seat are unlikely events like criminal indictment. There is one other possible impediment to Harris’ victory in both the 2008 primary and general. That impediment is the party itself. To defeat Gilchrest, and take a potentially tough Dem opponent, Sen. Harris will need a strong grassroots campaign throughout the district. This is something that most county parties are not particularly adept at providing their candidates.

Gilchrest is certainly not giving up yet. According to the the “Washington Times“,

“Multiple challengers is a state of existence for us,” Mr. Gilchrest’s chief of staff, Tony Caligiuri, said yesterday. “He’s been battle-tested from every perspective.”

Mr. Gilchrest has routinely beat his Democratic challengers by more than 30 points and has fended off Republican primary challengers by more than 20 points since he joined Congress in 1991.

Since 1988 Gilchrest has depended on a grassroots effort of moderate Republicans, tree huggers and enough conservatives (who prefer the devil they know) to take on whatever the Democrats have thrown at him. While unsuccessful in 1988, Gilchrest ousted an incumbent Dem in 1990 and has skated to victory ever since. Sure, Gilchrest has had primary opponents, but no opponent has run to date with the combination of electability and sufficient conservative bona fides to attract strong grassroots support.

Harris has experience in this realm as well. In 1998, Dr. Harris took on moderate Republican Sen. F. Vernon Boozer and beat him by 8 points in the GOP primary.

Harris is a true conservative. He will be able to tap into the conservative movement and receive the grassroots support that can take him over the top. Contrary to current popular belief, it is not simply Gilchrest’s opposition to the war that is making him a target. What makes Gilchrest pluckable in 2008 is a combination of factors that all boil down to one thing – we have a moderate / liberal representing a basically conservative district. If Andy Harris enters the race Gilchrest will face an opponent that conservatives will trust and will work hard to elect. Sen. Harris has proven that he is electable. He appears to posses all of the traits necessary to defeat Gilchrest in the primary and take on whoever the Dems send his way in November, 2008.

If I were Congressman Gilchrest I would hope that Sen. Pipkins decides to enter the race as well. Pipkin would act as a spoiler and possibly take enough votes that Gilchrest could win a plurality in a three man race.

Technorati Tags: 2008, conservatism, WayneGilchrest, AndyHarris, GOP, primary