Megatrends

In the early 1980’s John Naisbitt wrote a book which became a runaway best-seller. Megatrends was his prediction about some of the larger, or mega, trends he felt would impact and influence our lives going forward. He highlighted ten of these Megatrends in the book. A current review of his book would suggest he hit pretty closely on some of his calls and missed the target on some other ones, sometimes because of emerging technologies that few could anticipate.

I looked for my copy as I thought about this post, but couldn’t find it immediately. But my point is not really about any of his specific predictions; it’s really about his research approach.

Across the years, I’ve considered him a clever fellow for creating his research approach, as I recall it. Basically he used a variety of clipping services across the country to read local newspapers, and then to clip and send to him articles about a variety of topics. (Of course he’d be in a bad way had he relied on the current Dilly Timez). He compiled the materials they clipped to see which topics were getting the most mentions. He reasoned if topics were getting a lot of mentions locally, the subject was becoming a source of concern locally, and that interest would get shared with progressively higher levels of government, and would get addressed eventually in some fashion. Where he saw like concerns getting mentioned in a number of different cities and states, he also figured the topic had more than local or regional interest, and might qualify for observation as one of his ‘mega’ trends.

We are approaching that kind of critical mass locally regarding development, particularly residential development. Every day, literally, there is news of another sizeable local development being pitched somewhere in the region. The details vary; the location varies; how grand or modest the plan is varies. But the sum of the proposed developments and the number of housing units being proposed are enormous in comparison to our existing population base. The ripple effect on existing residents will be significant.

It was reassuring on Tuesday that the Wicomico County Council expressed a wish to really research the facts concerning a novel drip sewage treatment approach they were being asked to approve for a proposed development along the river. They tabled the matter until the Public Works Director can research and report back on the technique and its prospects for use in that locale.

Council President John Cannon, appearing on WICO radio the following day, said that the Council wanted to introduce a high and consistent level of predictability for any future development proposals, so that existing neighbors and property holders could reasonably anticipate what types of development might be approved or prohibited on a given parcel for quite a few years down the road. An important benefit to this approach would be a major reduction in the parade of exemptions, modifications and special pleadings that have been so commonplace in recent years as part of development proposals.

Sounds like a good approach.